2017 MNB/CEPR/ESRB Workshop on Macroprudential Policy: Designing the Tools and Assessing their Effectiveness

Highlights

• When: 27-28 April 2017
• Where: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Budapest, Hungary

The Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), will hold its 14th Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy Research in Budapest on 27-28 April 2017. The workshop aims to bring together central bankers and researchers with an interest in macroprudential policy. There will be a keynote address by Javier Suarez (CEMFI).

There are high hopes for the new macroprudential policy framework, but the lack of historical experience with macroprudential instruments poses challenges for policymakers. The effective application of these tools requires a deep understanding of their potential and limitations. The conference aims to facilitate a dialogue between policymakers and researchers in order to deepen our collective understanding of the effectiveness of macroprudential policy.

Programme

Thursday, 27 April 2017

08:00

Registration

08:50

Welcome address

György Matolcsy, Governor, Magyar Nemzeti Bank

09:00

Session 1

Chair: Márton Nagy, Vice Governor, Magyar Nemzeti Bank

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Monetary vs Macroprudential Polices: Casual Impacts of Interest Rates and Credit Controls in the Era of the UK Radcliffe Report (joint with David Aikman and Alan M. Taylor)

Presenter: Oliver Bush, Bank of England
Discussant: Norbert Metiu, Deutsche Bundesbank

09:50

Down in the Slumps: the Role of Finance in 60 Years of Recessions (joint with Chris Jackson and Daisy McGregor)

Presenter: Jonathan Bridges, Bank of England
Discussant: Emil Verner, Princeton University

10:40

Coffee break

11:00

Session 2

Chair: Dániel Palotai, Executive Director and Chief Economist, Magyar Nemzeti Bank

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Rollover Risk, Liquidity and Macroprudential Regulation

Presenter: Toni Ahnert, Bank of Canada
Discussant: David Pothier, DIW Berlin

11:50

When Shadows Grow Longer: Shadow banking with endogenous entry (joint with Anil Ari, Matthieu Darracq Pariés and Christoffer Kok)

Presenter: Dawid Zochowski, European Central Bank
Discussant: Paul Schempp, University of Cologne

12:40

Lunch

14:00

Session 3

Chair: Sam Langfield, European Systemic Risk Board

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A Positive Analysis of Bank Behavior under Capital Requirements (joint with Jonathan Bridges, Frederic Malherbe and Cian O’Neill)

Presenter: Saleem Bahaj, Bank of England
Discussant: David Martinez-Miera, Universidad Carlos III de Mardid

14:50

Cross-border Banking, Macroprudential Policy and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union (joint with Matthieu Darrack-Pariés and Christoffer Kok)

Presenter: Elena Rancoita, European Central Bank
Discussant: Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, National Bank of Poland and Warsaw School of Economics

15:40

Coffee break

16:00

Session 4

Chair: Szilárd Benk, Magyar Nemzeti Bank

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Macroprudential Policy in a Knightian Uncertainty Model with Credit-, Risk-, and Leverage Cycles (joint with Dawid Zochowski)

Presenter: Eddie Gerba, Banco de España/LSE/CESIfo
Discussant: Zsuzsanna Hosszú, Magyar Nemzeti Bank

16:50

Long credit cycles and countercyclical capital buffer in an agent based Keynesian model (joint with Zsuzsanna Hosszú)

Presenter: Bence Mérő, Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Discussant: Tirupam Goel, Bank for International Settlements

17:40

End of the workshop

19:30

Danube cruise with dinner

Friday, 28 April 2017

09:30

Session 5

Chair: Barnabás Virág, Vice Governor, Magyar Nemzeti Bank

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The Real Effects of Capital Requirements and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the United Kingdom (joint with Thomas Wieladek)

Presenter: Filippo De Marco, Bocconi University
Discussant: Ibolya Schindele, Magyar Nemzeti Bank and CEU Business School

10:20

Specializing in Risky Mortgages: Unintended Consequences of Basel II (joint with Matteo Benetton, Peter Eckley, Nicola Garbarino, Gergia Latsi and Paolo Siciliani

Presenter: Liam Kirwin, Bank of England
Discussant: Katalin Varga, Magyar Nemzeti Bank

11:10

Coffee break

11:30

Keynote speech

Chair: Anikó Szombat, Magyar Nemzeti Bank

11:30

Assessing the Cyclical Implications of IFRS 9: A Recursive Model

Presenter: Javier Suarez, CEMFI and CEPR

12:45

Lunch

14:00

Session 6

Chair: Ádám Banai, Magyar Nemzeti Bank

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Coping with unsustainable lending: early warning indicators and the use of macro-prudential instruments (joint with Irina Mihai)

Presenter: Luminita Tatarici, National Bank of Romania
Discussant: Tibor Szendrei, Magyar Nemzeti Bank

14:50

SSFI – A Factor Based Index of Systemic Stress in the Financial System (joint with Tibor Szendrei)

Presenter: Katalin Varga, Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Discussant: Jan Klacso, National Bank of Slovakia

15:40

End of the workshop

16:00

Wine tasting

This programme is preliminary and may be subject to change.

General information

Members of the organizing committee

• Wouter Den Haan (London School of Economics and CEPR)
• Peter Karadi (European Central Bank and CEPR)
• Sam Langfield (European Systemic Risk Board)
• Adam Reiff (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
• Eyno Rots (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
• Anikó Szombati (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)